In the last article we looked at the MPI model – comparisons of 2081-2100 for different atmospheric CO2 concentrations/emissions with 1979-2005. And comparisons between the MPI historical simulation and observations. These were all on an annual basis.
This article has a lot of graphics – I found it necessary because no one or two perspectives really help to capture the situation. At the end there are some perspectives for people who want to skip through.
In this article we look at similar comparisons to the last article, but seasonal. Mostly winter (northern hemisphere winter), i.e. December, January, February. Then a few comparisons of northern hemisphere summer: June, July, August. The graphics can all be expanded to see the detail better by clicking on them.
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Here we see the historical simulation over DJF 1979-2005 (1st graph) followed by the three scenarios, RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5 over DJF 2080-2099:
![](http://gcuck.jiuhongwang.com/2023/05/each-rcp-mpi-esm-lr-median-djf-2081-2100-abs-all-mpi-djf-1979-2005-global.png?w=500&h=308)
Figure 1 – DJF Simulations from MPI-ESM-LR for historical 1979-2005 & 3 RCPs 2080-2099 – Click to expand
Now the results are displayed as a difference from the historical simulation. Positive is more rainfall in the future simulation, negative is less rainfall:
![lanter专业破解版百度云](http://gcuck.jiuhongwang.com/2023/05/each-rcp-mpi-esm-lr-median-djf-2081-2100-diff-all-mpi-djf-1979-2005-global.png?w=500&h=283)
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And the % change. The Saharan changes look dramatic, but it’s very low rainfall turning to zero, at least in the model. For example, I picked one grid square, 20ºN, 0ºE, and the historical simulated rainfall was 0.2mm/month, under RCP2.6 0.05mm/month and for RCP8.6 0mm/month.
![landeng破解版安卓版最新](http://gcuck.jiuhongwang.com/2023/05/each-rcp-mpi-esm-lr-median-djf-2081-2100-perc-all-mpi-djf-1979-2005-global.png?w=500&h=287)
Figure 3 – DJF Simulations from MPI-ESM-LR for 3 RCPs in 2080-2099 as % of simulation of historical 1979-2005 – Click to expand
I zoomed in on Australia – each graph is absolute values. The first is the historical simulation, then the 2nd, 3rd, 4th are the 3 RCPs as before:
![](http://gcuck.jiuhongwang.com/2023/05/each-rcp-mpi-esm-lr-median-djf-2081-2100-abs-all-mpi-djf-1979-2005-australia.png?w=500&h=334)
Figure 4 – DJF Australia – simulations from MPI-ESM-LR for historical 1979-2005 & 3 RCPs 2080-2099 – Click to expand
Then differences from the historical simulation:
![latern破解版 专业版](http://gcuck.jiuhongwang.com/2023/05/each-rcp-mpi-esm-lr-median-djf-2081-2100-diff-all-mpi-djf-1979-2005-australia.png?w=500&h=335)
Figure 5 – DJF Australia – Simulations from MPI-ESM-LR for 3 RCPs in 2080-2099 minus simulation of historical 1979-2005 – Click to expand
Then percentage changes from the historical simulation:
![](http://gcuck.jiuhongwang.com/2023/05/each-rcp-mpi-esm-lr-median-djf-2081-2100-perc-all-mpi-djf-1979-2005-australia.png?w=500&h=327)
Figure 6 – DJF Australia – Simulations from MPI-ESM-LR for 3 RCPs in 2080-2099 as % of simulation of historical 1979-2005 – Click to expand
And the same for Europe – each graph is absolute values. The first is the historical simulation, then the 2nd, 3rd, 4th are the 3 RCPs as before:
![](http://gcuck.jiuhongwang.com/2023/05/each-rcp-mpi-esm-lr-median-djf-2081-2100-abs-all-mpi-djf-1979-2005-europe.png?w=500&h=366)
Figure 7 – DJF Europe – simulations from MPI-ESM-LR for historical 1979-2005 & 3 RCPs 2080-2099 – Click to expand
Then differences from the historical simulation:
![landeng破解版安卓版](http://gcuck.jiuhongwang.com/2023/05/each-rcp-mpi-esm-lr-median-djf-2081-2100-diff-all-mpi-djf-1979-2005-europe.png?w=500&h=369)
Figure 8 – DJF Europe – Simulations from MPI-ESM-LR for 3 RCPs in 2080-2099 minus simulation of historical 1979-2005 – Click to expand
Then percentage changes from the historical simulation:
![](http://gcuck.jiuhongwang.com/2023/05/each-rcp-mpi-esm-lr-median-djf-2081-2100-perc-all-mpi-djf-1979-2005-europe.png?w=500&h=366)
Figure 9 – DJF Europe – Simulations from MPI-ESM-LR for 3 RCPs in 2080-2099 as % of simulation of historical 1979-2005 – Click to expand
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![landeng破解版安卓版2022](http://gcuck.jiuhongwang.com/2023/05/each-rcp-mpi-esm-lr-median-jja-2081-2100-abs-all-mpi-jja-1979-2005-global.png?w=500&h=299)
Figure 10 – JJA Simulations from MPI-ESM-LR for historical 1979-2005 & 3 RCPs 2080-2099 – Click to expand
Now the results are displayed as a difference from the historical simulation. Positive is more rainfall in the future simulation, negative is less rainfall:
![](http://gcuck.jiuhongwang.com/2023/05/each-rcp-mpi-esm-lr-median-jja-2081-2100-diff-all-mpi-jja-1979-2005-global.png?w=500&h=309)
Figure 11 – JJA Simulations from MPI-ESM-LR for 3 RCPs in 2080-2099 minus simulation of historical 1979-2005 – Click to expand
And the % change:
![](http://gcuck.jiuhongwang.com/2023/05/each-rcp-mpi-esm-lr-median-jja-2081-2100-perc-all-mpi-jja-1979-2005-global.png?w=500&h=332)
Figure 12 – JJA Simulations from MPI-ESM-LR for 3 RCPs in 2080-2099 as % of simulation of historical 1979-2005 – Click to expand
Modeled History vs Observational History
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![](http://gcuck.jiuhongwang.com/2023/05/all-mpi-mean-djf-1979-2005-abs-gpcc-djf-1979-2005-global.png?w=500&h=125)
Figure 13 – DJF 1979-2005 GPCC Observational data & Median of all MPI historical simulations – Click to expand
The difference, so blue means the model produces more rain than reality, while red means the model produces less rain:
![](http://gcuck.jiuhongwang.com/2023/05/all-mpi-mean-djf-1979-2005-diff-gpcc-djf-1979-2005-global.png?w=500&h=263)
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And percentage change:
![lan灯破解版安卓版](http://gcuck.jiuhongwang.com/2023/05/all-mpi-mean-djf-1979-2005-perc-gpcc-djf-1979-2005-global.png?w=500&h=267)
Figure 15 – DJF 1979-2005 Median of all MPI historical simulations as % of GPCC Observational data – Click to expand
Some Perspectives
Now let’s look at annual, DJF and JJA for how simulation compare with observations, this is median MPI less GPCC – like figure 13. You can click to expand the image:
![](http://gcuck.jiuhongwang.com/2023/05/all-mpi-mean-djf-1979-2005-diff-gpcc-djf-1979-2005-global-comparison-seasons.png?w=500&h=341)
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Another perspective, compare projections of climate change with model skill. Top is skill (MPI simulation of DJF 1979-2005 less GPCC observation), bottom left is 2081-2100 RCP2.6 less MPI simulation, bottom right is RCP8.5 less MPI simulation:
![](http://gcuck.jiuhongwang.com/2023/05/djf-1979-2004-mpi-median-diff-gpcc-cf-rcp8.5-rcp2.6-diff-mpi-hist-1.png?w=500&h=283)
Figure 17 – DJF Compare model skill with projections of climate change for RCP2.6 & RCP8.5 – Click to expand
So let’s look at it another way.
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![latern专业破解版安卓最新版](http://gcuck.jiuhongwang.com/2023/05/rcp-2.68.5-djf-2080-2099-less-gpcc-1979-2005.png?w=500&h=122)
Figure 18 – DJF Compare model projections with actual historical – Click to expand
And the same for annual:
![Lantern专业版apk](http://gcuck.jiuhongwang.com/2023/05/rcp-2.68.5-annual-2080-2099-less-gpcc-1979-2005.png?w=500&h=117)
Figure 19 – Annual Compare model projections with actual historical – Click to expand
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![](http://gcuck.jiuhongwang.com/2023/05/mpi-rcp-2.68.5-annual-2080-2099-less-mpi-1979-2005.png?w=500&h=120)
Figure 20 – For contrast, as figure 19 but compare with model historical – Click to expand
If we look at SW Africa, for example, we see a progressive drying from RCP2.6 (drastic cuts in CO2 emissions) to RCP8.5 (very high emissions). But if we look at figure 19 then the model projections at the end of the century for that region have more rainfall than current.
If we look at California we see the same kind of progressive drying. But compare model projections with observations and we see more rainfall in California under both those scenarios.
Of course, this just reflects the fact that climate models have issues with simulating rainfall, something that everyone in climate modeling knows. But it’s intriguing.
In the next article we’ll look at another model.
References
An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design, Taylor, Stouffer & Meehl, AMS (2012)
GPCP data provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSL, Boulder, Colorado, USA, from their Web site at http://psl.noaa.gov/
GPCC data provided from http://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.gpcc.html
CMIP5 data provided by the portal at http://esgf-data.dkrz.de/search/cmip5-dkrz/
The representative concentration pathways: an overview, van Vuuren et al, Climatic Change (2011)
landeng破解版安卓版2022
March 31, 2023 by scienceofdoom
The IPCC 5th Assessment Report (AR5) from 2013 shows the range of results that climate models produce for global warming. These are under a set of conditions which for simplicity is doubling CO2 in the atmosphere from pre-industrial levels. The 2xCO2 result. Also known as ECS or equilibrium climate sensitivity.
The range is about 2-4ºC. That is, different models produce different results.
Other lines of research have tried to assess the past from observations. Over the last 200 years we have some knowledge of changes in CO2 and other “greenhouse” gases, along with changes in aerosols (these usually cool the climate). We also have some knowledge of how the surface temperature has changed and how the oceans have warmed. From this data we can calculate ECS.
This comes out at around 1.5-2ºC.
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The reason for preferring observations over models seems obvious – even though there is some uncertainty, the results are based on what actually happened rather than models with real physics but also fudge factors.
The reason for preferring models over observations is less obvious but no less convincing – the climate is non-linear and the current state of the climate affects future warming. The climate in 1800 and 1900 was different from today.
“Pattern effects”, as they have come to be known, probably matter a lot.
And that leads me to a question or point or idea that has bothered me ever since I first started studying climate.
Surely the patterns of warming and cooling, the patterns of rainfall, of storms matter hugely for calculating the future climate with more CO2. Yet climate models vary greatly from each other even on large regional scales.
latern破解版 专业版
Opinions and Perspectives – 1 – The Consensus
Opinions and Perspectives – 2 – There is More than One Proposition in Climate Science
Opinions and Perspectives – 3 – How much CO2 will there be? And Activists in Disguise
Opinions and Perspectives – 3.5 – Follow up to “How much CO2 will there be?”
Opinions and Perspectives – 4 – Climate Models and Contrarian Myths
Opinions and Perspectives – 5 – Climate Models and Consensus Myths
Opinions and Perspectives – 6 – Climate Models, Consensus Myths and Fudge Factors
Opinions and Perspectives – 7 – Global Temperature Change from Doubling CO2
Opinions and Perspectives – 8 – Pattern Effects Primer
Posted in Commentary | latern破解版 专业版